Whose restrictions are tighter?

There has been much squabbling about covid restrictions in NSW and Victoria, with very little evidence or data involved in the discussion. As a data science educator, I often stress that not all data is numeric. A reasonable dictionary definition of data, courtesy of Oxford Languages via Google is “Facts and statistics collected together for reference or analysis”, and I have to say that the covid debates, all of them, are far too sparing in their use of data, whether facts or statistics. So I decided to collect some facts and compare the restrictions, as listed on the state health department websites. This is an exercise you could easily do in class, and it is a wonderful application of data science.

NSW is currently under 3 different levels of restriction, depending on locale, so I have chosen to compare the Victoria wide restrictions with the Greater Sydney restrictions, as they involve the greatest proportion of the population.

The “too long, didn’t read” version of the comparison is: Victoria’s current lockdown is significantly stricter than the one in Greater Sydney. The only way in which NSW is stricter is the pausing of construction, which has not happened in Victoria.

NSW has quite a lot more retail open than Victoria, has a 10km limit compared with Victoria’s 5km, has childcare remaining open, as well as sporting facilities such as golf, tennis, and bowls, whereas in Victoria childcare is open, but golf, tennis, and bowls clubs are all closed. NSW also has a lot more permitted retail than Victoria.

It’s interesting to note the simplicity of Victoria’s mask rules, versus the bewildering complexity of NSW’s. This, to me, explains quite clearly why “masks outside” is important. Because if the rule is “wear your mask whenever you leave the house”, compliance is much simpler than “wear your mask when any of these conditions apply: (long list of situations where fine judgement applies).

It wasn’t difficult to find all of this out, but it did take me around half an hour of trawling through the two websites. All of the people who are on the internet shouting “NSW’s restrictions are tougher than Victoria’s!” and “There’s nothing more we can do, we are locked down as hard as we can” are absolutely playing fast and loose with the facts.

NSW can clearly be locked down harder, which so far seems to be working to suppress the virus in Victoria. We don’t know for sure that it will work now that the virus has spread so far in NSW, but we certainly don’t know for sure that it would not work. And it seems obvious that we should try, because the consequences are too awful to contemplate, in number of deaths, long term serious illness, and also the almost inevitable spread of covid to the rest of the country.

So before you leap into this, or any, debate armed with opinions and no facts, perhaps you could cautiously check your facts, and consider your options. Ideology is killing us. Facts could save us, if only we were prepared to listen to them.

We urgently need to train everyone, especially our kids, to collect the facts before forming opinions. It’s why I created the Australian Data Science Education Institute, and why I wrote Raising Heretics: Teaching Kids to Change the World.(which, by the way, you can pre-order now if you’re in Australia or NZ, or buy from all the usual places when it launches on August 1st)

Below is all of the information laid out for comparison.

Reasons to leave home, NSW: Only leave home if you have a reasonable excuse:

  • obtaining food “or other goods and services” for the personal needs of the household, or for other household purposes, or for vulnerable people, within 10km
  • to go to work if “you cannot reasonable work from home” or you “are an authorised worker living in the locked down areas
  • For education if it is not possible to do it at home
  • Exercise within 10km
  • Medical or caring reasons, including vaccination

Oh, but there’s a list of other reasonable excuses on another page, including to access childcare (which remains open), to visit intimate partners, gathering at Parliament.

Reasons to leave home, Vic:

  • shopping for necessary goods and services
  • care and care giving
  • exercise
  • authorised work and permitted study
  • to visit an intimate partner, single social bubble buddy, or an emergency

You must stay within 5km for shopping or exercise

Facemasks, NSW:

  • indoors when not at home,
  • some outdoor gatherings (working in an outdoor area, next to food & drink or retail, fresh food markets),
  • public transport,
  • major recreation facility such as a stadium,
  • working in hospitality,
  • construction sites,
  • indoors and outdoors at fresh food markets,
  • at covidsafe outdoor gatherings, and at controlled outdoor public gatherings (it was not easy to find out what these are and whether they are currently allowed).
  • Common indoor areas in residential buildings

Facemasks, Vic:

  • Indoors and outdoors whenever you leave your home
  • You do not need to wear a facemask if you are working alone, whether indoors or outdoors, unless another person enters the space.

Permitted retail, NSW:

  • supermarkets
  • grocery stores including butchers, bakeries, fruit and vegetable, seafood
    other food or drink retailers that predominantly sell or display food or drinks
  • kiosks and other small food and drink premises
  • petrol stations
  • banks and financial institutions
  • hardware, building supplies
  • landscaping material supplies
  • agricultural and rural supplies
  • shops that, in the normal course of business, operate as or sell and display
    • pet supplies
    • newsagents
    • office supplies
    • chemists providing health, medical, maternity and baby supplies or
    • liquor stores
    • post offices
    • garden centres and plant nurseries
    • vehicle hire premises, not including the premises at which vehicles are sold;
    • shops that predominantly carry out repairs of mobile phones
    • laundromats and drycleaners.

“Businesses may continue to operate if they provide goods and services to customers and follow the requirements for wearing of face masks and check-in requirements (for example, using QR codes).” – It’s unclear to me whether this means all retail/service businesses, or only the list of permitted ones.

Shopping must be within 10km of your home, or within your local government area.

Permitted retail, Vic:

  • supermarkets,
  • pharmacies,
  • butchers,
  • bottle shops,
  • petrol stations,
  • post offices,
  • banks,
  • food stores,
  • newsagents,
  • liquor stores,
  • pet stores.
  • Other retail shops will only be available for delivery or contactless click and collect, and workers may attend onsite to facilitate these orders.
  • Cafes and restaurants for take away & delivery only

You can only travel 5km away for shopping unless the nearest essential goods and services are further than 5km, in which case you may travel more than 5km to the nearest provider.

Only one person per day can leave home for necessary goods and services, and only once per day.

Construction: Paused in NSW, operating in Vic.

Social interaction: NSW & Vic: exercise outdoors with your household OR one other person, visit intimate partners, Vic: Single social bubble.

Childcare: Open in NSW and Vic.

Schools: Remote learning in both states.

Outdoor recreation facilities such as tennis clubs, bowls clubs, shooting ranges and golf clubs: open in NSW, Closed in Vic.

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