Covid Data

Over the course of the pandemic I’ve put together quite a few explainers, rants, and explorations of the data. Sometimes to clear something up in my own head, sometimes to explain something that people seem to be missing. So this page is an ongoing collection of that data. I don’t update the graphs every day. You are welcome to ping me on twitter @lindamciver if you want to see the latest version of a particular graph, but generally they will appear here eventually. The latest updates on the current outbreaks will appear at the top of the page, older graphs, videos, and posts are further down.

If this kind of data exploration appeals to you, or you use it with your kids, or in your classes, then you’re going to want to check out Raising Heretics: Teaching Kids to Change the World. You can see excerpts from it on the adsei blog, find links to buy it on adsei.org, and check out the book launch video.

Please feel free to use and share these graphs, but always link to this page and attribute the work. It is shared under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial License, so if you want to make money out of it, you need to contact me as that is not covered by this license.

Update: Today’s Melbourne case graph, and the updated Melbourne’s second wave compared with Sydney’s current outbreak.

the graph is a jagged blue line, it goes up a bit then down to zero in early August, before jaggedly climbing to a peak of 71, and heading back down to today's value of 45.
Melbourne daily covid diagnoses as at 25/8/21
Melbourne's line is a jagged red line trending upwards. Sydney's line trends upwards at much the same rate, but is less jagged. At this point Melbourne's line started to go down a few days later, Sydney's trend remains to be seen! Currently higher than Melbourne ever got to, and trending upwards. Looks a little like a dragon's mouth.
Sydney’s current outbreak vs Melbourne’s second wave
Melbourne's line is a jagged red line trending upwards. Sydney's line trends upwards at much the same rate, but is less jagged. At this point Melbourne's line started to go down a few days later, Sydney's trend remains to be seen!
Current as at August 20

This is today’s (19/8/21) Melbourne outbreak graph. It’s a bit terrifying, except that of the 57 new cases, 44 were in isolation the entire time they were infectious, and 54 are linked to known cases. That still leaves 13 out in the wild while infectious, and 3 cases of unknown origin, so it’s more important than ever that we follow the restrictions and minimise contact with anyone we don’t live with.

the graph is a jagged blue line, it goes up a bit then down to zero in early August, before jaggedly climbing to today's peak of 57.
Melbourne Daily Case numbers for the current outbreak, current as at August 20

This is yesterday’s version of the current NSW outbreak vs Melbourne’s second wave. I started making these graphs because all of the “At least it’s not like Melbourne’s second wave” rhetoric was bothering me, because it was tracking the same way. And still is. The question is, will it turn down again?

Melbourne's line is a jagged red line trending upwards. Sydney's line trends upwards at much the same rate, but is less jagged. At this point Melbourne's line started to go down a few days later, Sydney's trend remains to be seen!

This next one is important, because it shows Melbourne’s second wave annotated with when the types of restrictions were introduced. It’s a pretty clear indication of what worked and what didn’t.

Blue spikes representing daily case numbers, with a red trend line curving up and then down again. AS the trend line goes up, restrictions are introduced gradually, 10 postcodes enter stage 3 lockdown, more postcodes are added, most school kids except yr 11 and 12 sent home, masks made mandatory outside the home, then all school kids brought home and strict stage 4 lockdown impleemented, at which point the curve peaks and comes down.
Covid Cases per day in Melbourne’s second wave, annotated with restriction timings

Now for some videos.

This is an explainer on Exponential Growth. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEHsdBB_x5w&t=2s

Why the death rate is complicated, and changes according to circumstances. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prQvc-ilFmw

And some blog posts.

Understanding R0 and why it matters – why Delta changed the game. https://adsei.org/2021/07/15/understanding-the-data-will-help-us-understand-the-danger/

How our lack of data literacy is killing us. https://adsei.org/2021/07/14/our-lack-of-data-literacy-is-literally-killing-us/

Please feel free to contact me if there is some kind of covid related data exploration you would like to see, or indeed any other interesting dataset. I make no promises, but am always interested in ideas for data work that will engage the wider community and help build data literacy.

If you love the idea of helping the world become more rational and data literate, help fund the work at givenow.com.au/adsei